Scrap metal prices are not random. They follow patterns driven by weather, construction cycles, manufacturing schedules, and global trade flows. By analyzing scrap metal price history, dealers and processors can identify recurring seasonal trends and use them to make better buying and selling decisions.
The Seasonal Pattern in Ferrous Scrap
Steel scrap prices in the United States tend to follow a recognizable annual pattern. Prices often soften in December and January as construction activity slows in cold-weather regions and mills reduce production around the holidays. Supply tightens as well, since fewer demolition projects generate scrap during winter months, but demand drops faster.
February and March typically bring the first price increases of the year as mills ramp up production for the spring construction season. This is often the steepest price move of the year. Dealers who accumulate inventory during the winter lull can benefit from this spring rally.
Summer months tend to be stable, with steady demand from construction and manufacturing. A second price cycle sometimes occurs in September and October as mills build inventory before year-end, though this pattern is less consistent than the spring rally.
Non-Ferrous Seasonality
Copper scrap prices are more closely tied to global macroeconomic conditions than to domestic seasons, since copper is a globally traded commodity with the LME as its benchmark. However, domestic collection rates do show seasonality. More copper becomes available in spring and summer when construction and renovation activity peaks.
Aluminum scrap, particularly UBC, shows strong seasonal collection patterns. Beverage consumption rises in summer, increasing the supply of used cans. Processors often see UBC prices dip slightly during peak collection months due to the supply surge.
Using Historical Data
To identify these patterns in your specific market, you need at least two to three years of price history at the grade level. Monthly averages smooth out weekly noise and make seasonal trends visible. Plot the data as a 12-month overlay, with each year as a separate line, to see where the patterns converge.
Calculating a seasonal index for each month helps quantify the trend. Divide each month's average price by the annual average. A month with an index of 1.05 historically runs about 5 percent above the annual average.
Accessing Historical Data
The ScrapMetal API's historical endpoint provides daily price data going back to the start of our data collection. On the Basic plan, you get 30 days of history. The Pro plan unlocks the full archive. Query with start and end date parameters and a grade filter to pull exactly the data you need for your analysis.